Saturday, January 21, 2012

TomTom and Android - My View

One of the lingering questions in the turn-by-turn navigation industry is why TomTom has failed to answer the challenge that Android has presented them.  Because of TomTom's (near) silence on the issue, we are left to speculate.  Here is my speculation.  TomTom does not have an Android solution for one of the following reasons:

  • They want a solution but can't get it out the door for technical reasons.
  • They don't want a solution and view it as a strategy to compete with Android. (Doubtful)
  • They view partner solutions as "good enough."
Each of these are viable reasons, based on TomTom's own actions.

Let's start with public comments made by TomTom executives in 2009, yes almost 3 years ago.  In 2009, senior VP for TomTom onboard mobile Benoit Simery was quoted as saying "We cannot ignore such a successful platform as Android."  Well, it is three years later.  You've done a pretty good job of ignoring it so far.

Android was growing in 2009, no question.  Today, however, Android's popularity dwarfs what it was in 2009.  It would be one thing if TomTom was blind to Android's growing popularity in 2009, but clearly they weren't.  Clearly Android's popularity exploded since that statement was made.  Yet, not only was TomTom unable to muster a response to that popularity that allowed them to ride the popularity wave upward, they remain without an answer to this day, nearly 3 years later.

In the spring of 2011, another TomTom executive, Corinne Vigreux made a public statement that "(they) are currently working on an Android version."  TomTom would have been better served by Ms. Virgreux not saying a word.  To state that, yet not deliver almost a year later, fuels technical incompetence discussions.

TomTom publicly announced the need to address Android in 2009.  They publicly announced, two years later, that they are working on an Android solution.  Now, nearly a year after that, they still haven't delivered. 

TomTom's own mobile discussion forum is dominated by two discussions posts, both discussing Android.  Between the two posts, they have received 27,000 views - by far the most of any posts on the forum.  Yet, despite TomTom's willingness for their two executives to speak publicly about Android on two occasions, they have allowed these two threads to develop and be viewed over 27,000 times without a single comment.  

If TomTom truly wants an Android solution but can't get it out the door for technical reasons I question their technical competence.  ALK, Navigon, Waze, Mapquest, Sygic, NDrive, NNG and others are all on at least their second generation Android products.  There is no reasonable explanation for why a technical problem is preventing TomTom from getting a first generation product to the Android market.

I rule out TomTom not wanting an Android product as a (misguided) strategy for how to compete with Android, given the two executive comments highlighted above.  If there has been a change of heart at TomTom about Android then TomTom owes their customers a similar pubic statement indicating that they will not support Android.  Close the door on the issue if that is the case.

If TomTom is content with partner solutions like Route66, my personal opinion is that this is a highly misguided strategy.  Maps are becoming a commodity.  Automated map correct solutions, such as those being used by Waze, will make solutions like TomTom MapShare obsolete in my opinion.  TomTom appears to have no answer.

In my opinion, the only company today, with the power to differentiate their maps from a competitive perspective is Navteq.  TeleAtlas has greatly improved from years ago, but I personally do not believe they are equal to Navteq when it comes to the details.  Compare the text of a Navteq freeway exit sign image to the text of a TomTom freeway exit sign image and you will see what I mean.  Navteq's text is usually 100% accurate when compared to the actual freeway sign. The TeleAtlas text is usually close, but often times appears to have been built from the Exit number and intersection road names only, positioned on a sign to look like a sign.  They often lack the specific text of the road signs themselves, like the city name, landmark and other details that are unrelated to the actual exit number or road name.

All of this leads me to this conclusion, which is my personal opinion:  TomTom does have two pieces of valuable intellectually property left, that are currently not commodities.  However, their lack of an answer for Android squanders any remaining advantage of that intellectual property on a daily basis.  I believe that the US market will look back at TomTom and say "remember when TomTom screwed up their Android strategy?  They had a shot at one time."  Will TomTom become tomorrow's Kodak?

TomTom's remaining, valuable intellectual property is IQRoutes and HDTraffic.
Clearly TomTom/TeleAtlas had a competitive advantage over Navteq with IQRoutes.  Navteq is in catch up mode on that feature.  But TomTom is allowing Navteq to catch up.  A competent TomTom strategy would have been a strategy that leverages the head start of IQRoutes and builds on it to remain far ahead of Navteq.  Smartphones, both Android and iPhone, had to be a key part of that strategy for it to work.  TomTom is blowing that opportunity.

IQRoutes (and HDTraffic) needs users.  Users are TomTom's probes for these features. These features are nothing without users.  For these features to remain accurate and thus valuable, they need to continue to be fueled with user data from a growing user base.

TomTom should be doing everything in its power to continue to build its user base, in order to preserve the value of its intellectual property of IQRoutes.  Instead, TomTom has been completely incompetent on an Android strategy, which has resulted in not adding users. For users that have switched to Android as their navigation choice, TomTom gets nothing from them.  Out of nearly 1,000,000 potential customers PER DAY, TomTom get NONE of them.  TomTom is allowing Waze to succeed at TomTom's own game because of TomTom's lack of a competent Android strategy.  Do you think TomTom will ever get those users back?  I think not.  Even if TomTom eventually does come up with a competent Android strategy, they have given their potential customers so long to use a competitor's solution that I think most of them will say "so long TomTom" for good.  

But in my opinion, TomTom still has a small chance.  They do still have a large customer base and solutions like Waze have a long way to go in mid to small markets where IQRoutes is more complete.  If you read a TomTom Facebook post, you will see that it is getting increasingly difficult for them to not get bombarded with customer posts blasting them about their lack of Android presence on nearly anything TomTom posts there.  While that has to be unbelievably frustrating and perhaps embarrassing for TomTom, they should see one sliver of good news in the current situation:  customers still care.

When customers quit caring and asking for a TomTom for Android solution, that is when TomTom should be very, very worried.  That day is not far off.